OUCH!

Well, yesterday was a prime example of fall weather systems where if anything can go wrong with a setup, it most likely will. Part of my problem was doing a lazy analysis and forecast thus missing the fact 850mb winds would veer across the very strong convergence boundary in SW OK to west of Wichita Falls. This veered profile was just enough to spread some extremely dry air over what otherwise would have been an excellent surface setup. This was evident by high-based little showers that produced only high-based virga.

I really believed that the 850mb winds would remain more backed as the surface low intensified in far SE CO. But, I don't think the configuration of the mid-upper level system was really conducive for that...hindsight being 20/20 of course. Regardless, I truly believed there was an opportunity in my target area of any storm that could form and get organized had a good chance to produce a tornado.

However, in the "stormchasing community", things are erupting as SDS kicks into high gear. From stormchaser police writing virtual citations for rolling through a stop sign in the middle of nowhere to getting all bent out of shape over a little innocent humor, it's getting rough out there. Although I've ranted about this before, I have yet to see another "hobby" as cuthroat and backstabbing as this one is. Lanny Dean is certainly feeling the love even more than me. Time to freshen up on my chaser gang signs. Sigh....

Alrighty...moving right along....

Kudos go to Mike Umscheid who scored a nice tornado in far SW KS with a classic cold core setup. I almost made the trip up there, but seeing mid-40 temperatures storms would move into just didn't excite me very much. A lesson learned indeed. Jon Davies has a good analysis on the event too. One of these years, I'm going to commit to chasing a cold core setup.

Looking at the latest medium range models, it appears that the first real shot of winter is going to slam the southern plains in about 8-10 days. That is still a ways out, but worthy of mentioning because of the potential impacts. If this were to verify according to the GFS, then a shot of some pretty cold air plunges into the area. How cold? Highs stuggling to get to 32F. There is also some forecast precipitation as well which could be on the heavy side. But, like I said, still a ways out with a large potential error spread. I'll be watching it closely. And, wouldn't you know, as I am writing, I hear the honking of some Canadian Geese outside as they are settling into Amarillo for the winter. Time to hunker down for the winter. No more silly talk of chasing until March. :-)