Upcoming Storm System & Music Blurb

The next week is going to prove quite an active one for the eastern half of the US. Expect severeal headlines with this one with everything in the meteorological cookbook being served up.
The models are now in better agreement with the track and intensity of the system, although still waiting for it to get closer to the radiosondes for better model ingestion. One of the things to note is the expected 100kt 500mb jet streak associated with it over the southern plains (mainly Texas) and even northern Mexico. This is pretty much a solid forecast from all models for several days now.

I honestly have a hard time recalling the last time such a powerful system affected this southern latitude around mid March. I wonder if this is the vanguard of what is to follow in it's wake over the next few months? With a significantly colder and snowier winter this past year than we've seen in a couple of decades or more, I would expect that we won't have a normal spring.

Based on the models at this point, I don't see any potential to chase this system. Storm motions will be at least 50mph and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scooting along at 70mph. Seriously. Plus, with such a strong system and incredible broadscale UVVs, the main mode for most of the event will be a big squall line bulldozing it's way across the south. Expect to see at least a couple of widespread wind events. As it moves further east by Tuesday/Wednesday into the Mississippi Valley region, I certainly think isolated tornadic supercells could erupt ahead of the squall line somewhere. It could be another big outbreak taking shape. Stay tuned for that one.

For Sunday, the system and best dynamics remain west of Texas as we will be on the strong anticyclonic side of the upper jets. However, overnight through Monday morning, strong storms should erupt along the front/dryline as it surges into Texas and jet dynamics move into play. Late Monday afternoon, a significant severe weather event should be erupting roughly along the I-35 corridor in Texas (likely south of I-20) and spreading eastward.....mainly a big honking squall line. All of Texas should at least get some decent rains out of this...particularly parched West Texas and Panhandles.

With the system expected to close off and crawl through Texas, heavy rains and storms should persist into Tuesday with a remote chance of a cold core event then somewhere in NW TX into Oklahoma based on the current GFS. It is going to be quite interesting to watch the evolution of this system. It should become more clear by Saturday with regards to model solutions, but with a large part of the upper level storm system over the data void area of Mexico, this one could really cause some serious forecasting busts and headaches before it is over with. I've seen these monster system before do just that...although it has been quite a while since I've seen one like this. :-)

After this system spreads havoc through the US, indications are that we will have to deal with yet another east coast trough pattern with a west coast ridge. Ugh. It seems like we have been stuck in that pattern forever. However, after watching the ensemble spaghetti plots for the past few days along with the operational GFS, there looms some hope in the crystal ball that a much more favorable upper pattern establishes itself towards the end of the month. I'm certainly ready for it. LOL.

More updates to come. Stay tuned.

As an off-topic blurb concerning music, I've been thoroughly enjoying the latest album from The Mars Volta called "The Bedlam In Goliath". I've been a huge fan since I discovered them last year. This CD certainly doesn't disappoint and carries through with their same style, creativity, talent and intensity that got me hooked on them. A new drummer, Thomas Pridgen is on this CD which concerned me since Jon Theodore totally blew me away on all of the band's previous albums. I didn't think he could be replaced. However, Thomas has done an excellent job filling the role with his own unique style but remaining true to the band's musical persona. I like it alot. I've since been happily trying to emulate Thomas' on my TD-20 kit. :-)

I'm also going to go see Rush in Oklahoma City next month on the 26th. It was the only Saturday date close enough to see them. I was pissed that I had to cancel the Red Rocks Ampitheater performance last year. I have yet to see my favorite band live, and I'll be damned if I'm going to miss them again. Come hell, high water, red boxes, high risk outlooks, or the CFDG stormchaser police squad. LOL! I'll also have to hit up my homies in the OKC vicinity for a few drinks and perhaps take advantage of the Miller Suites. ;-)