3....2.....1....

NOTE: I'll be updating my live chase blog starting this afternoon: http://www.texastailchaser.com/tailcaster/ I'll also be on http://spotternetwork.org/google.php if you want to track my position.

Okay, chase day is here..finally!! :-) Latest 12z NAM and RUC have shifted things abit, not unexpectedly. However, they are in close agreement. Interestingly, the NAM has the surface low or triple point closer to Pampa, TX by 00Z. The RUC just a little east of there closer to the TX/OK border.

I see alot of hand-wringing and worrying about nothing breaking out until after dark. If I had a dollar for everytime a big isolated tornadic cell popped up by 23z where the models didn't predict anything until after dark, I'd be a very wealthy individual. :-)

The RUC is abit too aggressive with the 00Z precip forecast, but I think it has the right idea of adequate BL convergence to get those parcels to the LFC. I'm going to predict initiation between 22 and 23z. There will be very strong insolation all day today out in W OK and the TX PH. Moisture convergence with strong BL convergence and a decent triple point along with a dryline bulge will work together to pop off something by 23z. The cool thing is that it will likely be one or two isolated cells until after dark.

All of the parameters are there for tornadic supercells today and late this evening. The model parameters indicate south of I-40 for the best environment. My target this morning was Mangum, OK, but I'm starting to think more like Shamrock/Texola/Wellington along the TX/OK border along and just south of I-40 if the triple point ends up just west of there. I'll be monitoring data to see where it will eventually end up this afternoon.

I'll be teaming up with Jay McCoy in his vehicle. So, with his blues/reds on top, I'm sure we can "disgust" some other chasers out there today. LOL!