10...9...8....

Counting down the hours until chase day tomorrow. Although it will likely change as more model data rolls in, my target right now is May, Oklahoma as close to the triple point as possible. The major concern is whether storms will fire before dark. I believe they will with such pronounced and strong surface convergence. If we did have any notable upper air feature providing forcing, it would line out quickly. So, I'm glad we don't. This could be a one or two cell event until 03-06z.

After talking with Jay McCoy, one thing to consider is just how dry it is out here in the PH and W TX. Given that a surface low is progged by 18z around the eastern OK PH, ew could certainly see a more pronounced dryline bulge/punch than currently forecast....and likely right along the I-40 corridor. But, I'll wait until morning to see how that might play out. Heck, things might shift into the NE TX PH or even Kansas. LOL

Regardless, all of the parameters are there for a small scale, but significant event through early evening. Tornadoes are a good bet. More on this in the morning prior to heading out. I've got to go finish some errands and then get the chase equipment ready this evening.

Let's Roll!!!