Texas Tornado Two Step

LIVE UPDATES:

0225z (really, truly my last post lol): Sho 'nuff. TOR issued for Coleman county for that cell coming out of Runnels. Pretty nice radar presentation and velocity couplet. David is right in the middle of it. Go Dave!! Overall, I was pretty happy with the way my forecast ended up today with STE to JCT as my target area favoring Junction. :-) Okay...I'm done. Zzzzzzzz.

0208z (last update for the evening): All of the storms seem to be winding down now. I'm eyeing the one in Runnels county now near Ballinger. Good rotation indicated on it now east of Ballinger and come hookish tendency. Strong meso now indicated on it. David Drummond is very close to it now. I think it will pop a TOR on it soon. The cell approaching Kerrville has a nice hook on it with some rotation indicated. This one looks ominous for Kerrville. This is my last post for the evening as I need to prepare for a work day tomorrow.

0147z: David Drummond reported that he caught a nice cone funnel and possible tornado on that cell earlier in Coleman county. He just reported a massive and impressive beaver tail associated with the hooking cell in far NE Runnels county. Radar presentation looks good, only mid level rotation right now.

0138z: AT 829 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE COLEMAN

0125z: Impressive twin tornadic cells around bandera county. As the first one exits the county, another one is hot on it's heels entering the county from the west. It will be interesting to see how this second one interacts with the outflow boundary from the first storm. Sometimes, these secondary storms riding along such a boundary can really be the more inttense of the two cells.

4 panel reflectivity showing the BWER and overhang in Bandera county. Dig that hook!



0107z: The "storm of the day" continues in Bandera county and barely crawling north. Very impressive radar signatures including incredible BWER with sharp overhang. This has got to be one beautiful storm in person. I'll load some images shortly. More comprehensive images tomorrow evening.

Other storms that were TOR warned SW of Abilene around Coleman and Taylor counties don't look all that impressive. I have to wonder why they pulled the trigger and issued a TOR on them. I just don't see any velocity couplets on my Level3 data (yeah, I know..need to upgrade lol).

0040z: Storms have cycled down abit, but appearing to strengthen again. The most intense cell is in Bandera county NW of San Antonio. Strong rotation still indicated at all tilts with pronounced weak echo region at REF tilt2 and strong overhang echo at tilt3. I'm pretty certain a tornado has been associated with that one..nobody has reported it yet.

The earlier tornado-warned storm near Abilene weakend, but showing signs of life again in western Shackleford County. Some weak rotation and slight hookish reflectivity pattern.

Of particular note, the cell in Runnels/Coleman county has split. The right split is showing some hooking and weakly organized rotation. David Drummond is intercepting it from the east. oops! Tornado warning on it now!!

0018z: 2 miles NE of Commerce: TREES DOWN ON HWY. 24 NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE. POSSIBLE TORNADIC DAMAGE.

0017Z: 1 mile W of Abilene. SIX POWER POLES WERE REPORTED DOWN AT REBECCA LANE AND 277 ON THE WEST SIDE OF ABILENE. THE POLES WERE BLOWN OVER FROM WEST TO EAST.

0015Z: Spotters observing a developing tornado 16 miles NE of Commerce.

0011Z: Tornado warnings starting to roll in now. The one earlier NE of Dallas around Hunt county produced two reported funnel clouds including one over Commerce. Earlier today when the first tornadic cell developed around Sweetwater, it did in fact produce a tornado. 2:15pm, 4W Maryneal in Nolan County.

While sitting here in foggy, cloudy, cold Amarillo, it's excrutiating to see the warm sector just a few hours drive away primed for a sever weather event. Already, one storm erupted new Sweetwater and went TOR before dissipating along woth other storms that exploded earlier. It's odd to have something like that happen, but I've seen significant events start off like this. The earlier stuff was just a teaser of what lies ahead the next several hours.

I thought last night and even this morning that the best area would be between Junction and Stephenville and leaned towards the Junction area. However, it is apparent the upper system has stalled. The dryline/front is still well west of I-35 and hasn't even reached Vernon/San Angelo line yet. This as of 3:45pm. The models missed that as well as the extensive precip shield north of I-20.

Instead, skies have cleared and the cap increased. This is allowing the boundary layer to really cook and destabilize as the favored jet dynamics are now crossing the border. However, skies over the dryline/front a clouding over (a possible reason it hasn't moved this afternoon owing to reduced mixing). This appears to me to be a factor in delaying the convective initiation until after dark except for areas north of I-20 where better insolation exists. And in fact, a new cell is erupting just SE of Guthrie. (yeah, I know Jay...Throckmorton County...lol)

Additionally, dewpoint depressions are exceeding 20F along the convergence zone which will work against a tornado threat as cold pool generation will be a problem and undercutting updrafts. I've seen this before where storms erupt in a linear fashion and quickly generate a nice outflow boundary ahead of themselves.

So, the more serious tornado threat, to me at least, appears to be shaping up after dark as storms move further east into better, deeper moisture along with the best jet dynamics including LLJ come into play along with strong helicities. It all just seems a little out of phase to me for this afternoon....the front/dryline is a bit too far west.

Nevertheless, before morning, I'm thinking Texas will be in the headlines. The major cities along the I-35 corridor should really be on alert.

Okay...back to work here in miserabblly cold Amarillo. Is it April yet? LOL