Chase Season Commencement & Undular Bore

Well, the spring season has been pretty lethargic so far in terms of severe weather for the southern plains. The extremely annoying upper air pattern we've seen for several months now with a persistant trough over the east coast is finally starting to change. The transition into one more favorable for some good chasing will be ongoing this week. We should see some performances of the "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment" soon. :-)

It looks like OK/KS should see some possibilities the latter half of the week depending on the zonal jet configuration. Right now, the models want to keep the jet a bit far north with the better surface features on the anti-cyclonic side of the jets. This will work against getting some good supercells to pop due to weak subsidence. I'm not saying impossible, just pretty long odds.

However, things change pretty quickly by about Sunday. If reality evolves from the model advertisement, then it could be the first real decent chase opportunity. It is still a good ways off in the future, but the models have been pretty consistent in the favorable pattern about that time. Between now and then, there will be no more strong fronts blasting into the Caribbean, so we should be able to realize some prolonged moisture return this week setting us up nicely. It is after all approaching April...winter can't hang on forever. :-)

Unfortunately, balmy temeperatures this week and a pretty dry airmass over the panhandle and western Texas with strong surface winds will make the fire danger extremely volatile. We desperately need some good rainfall out here.

In other news, a week or two ago, a fascinating example of an Undular Bore (gravity wave) showed up off the Texas coast. Check it out!!