Watching The Pot

The old saying goes: "A watched pot never boils". Indeed, with the gorgeous weather outside right now with temps near 80 and clear skies, my SDS is raging furiously. Days seem like weeks while I wait for my first real good chase. The last time I've seen a serious thunderstorm was the rare October night time tornado event here last fall....and that was just distant lightning. It's a crime, really. In fact, we haven't had much rain in a long time. Lake Meridith is now at it's all-time low.

Yesterday, the models weren't offering much hope for anything until Sunday. Now, they are keeping the zonal flow much more broad across the southern plains this week into the weekend. Undoubtedly, subtle ripples and impulses will traverse the region which the models will have a difficult if not impossible time handling.

There will be a dryline, surface low and cool front meandering around the region through then. Moisture begins returning in earnest tomorrow and gets better each day. Surface convergence is forecast to be moderate to strong each day. It still looks like any action would be east of the caprock however until Sunday-ish. But, nonetheless, I think each day will offer a chance for a chasing opportunity in OK or northern parts of Texas. With strong insolation, increasing moisture/instability, and mid level flow either perpendicular to the dryline or parallel to the quasistationary/oscillating surface front, one isolated storm could really put on a show.

With so many unresolved variables, it will be tough to really nail down a forecast until the morning of each day ahead. So, definitely keep an eye on things....especially for you Okies and North Texans. I know I will be watching the pot waiting impatiently for it boil over. By the weekend, things look more promising and abit more certain. Still a ways out, but definitely some promise.

Stay tuned.