2007 Chase Season - The Sequal - Part Deux
UPDATE 1900z: 18z RUC continues supporting the idea of busting out something from about Childress northward into KS with a good signal in the E/NE TX PH. I will leave by about 3pm and head to Canadian which is my target of the day. Just for grins, I'm picking Higgins, TX for the tornado intercept. :-) Will update from the road sometime after 3pm. Click on the Tailcaster link to the right and follow along. I'm pretty excited about it. I just hope something doesn't get screwed up like the cap holding or the dryline crawfishing westwards. It's been that kind of year for me. ;-)
UPDATE 1630z: Latest RUC (15z) guidance redevelops the surface low back to west of Springfield, CO by 18z with strong dryline convergence setting up across the I-40 corridor in the TX PH. By 21z, it moves the surface low to Springfield with continued convergence just east of Dumas/Amarillo and breaks out precip down to Beaver, OK into the NE TX PH. By 00z, the surface low only moves to Elkhart, KS and the RUC lights up the dryline from around Claude, TX northward into KS. Strong SRH values of 300 are progged from the NE tip of TX PH into SW KS along with CAPE 2000-3000. The nice dry punch/bulge knifes into SW KS and I'm concerned about another signficant tornado event unfolding up there. I'm going to aim for the NE TX PH though and work into NW OK with what erupts there. 5000 chasers will be in SW KS today. :-) I can't help but think the SPC will raise the outlook to moderate and use more stern wording in the 1630z outlook. We'll see. I'm also getting pretty excited for tomorrow too based on the 12z NAM.
In reviewing my forecast yesterday, I think I did alright and still would have made it. The dryline initially setup just east of Amarillo where a cell tried to pop up in the same spot three different times. The third time nearly had me bolting out the door. I have no doubt that it would have stayed rooted on the dryline and put on a show. However, convergence quickly waned and the cap won out, unfortunately. A cluster of high based storms associated with a lagging impulse came crashing into the party and screwed everything up. Even then, a couple of cells went stationary and backbuilt with a slow southward push. They popped some good mesos on them and a couple of hooks as they crossed the weak convergence zone (formally the dryline). So, that was interesting. I did get treated to a great lightning show on the way home. There were a couple of incredible displays as the entire sky would light up and erupt with crawlers and CGs all at once making it seem like daylight.
For today, the 1300z SPC outlook shifts the carrot-on-a-stick a little further northward into NW and W Central KS with a teaser outlook down to Childress. Even if I took the day off, NW KS is too far for me. So, I'll be focusing from the OK PH southward along the dryline. Everybody seems to be frightened by the big, scary cap from DDC southward today. I ain't skeered though. ;-)
As I wait for the 12z RUC/NAM to arrive, I'm hope to avoid the mass chaser exodus following the SPC outlooks and gamble on the dryline. The 11z RUC showed the SFC low in extreme SE CO today with strong dryline convergence across the TX PH...interesting. If this verifies (the RUC was bad yesterday prior to 18z), then enough convergence along with a subtle dryline circulation or two will pop up an isolated cell or two down in these parts with all of that juicy, unstable virgin air feeding them. Vertical wind profiles are in good shape to really get these puppies rotating. Again, they should be slow movers with deviant motions and if the dryline covergence is strong enough, they have a good chance of staying rooted on it.
So for me personally, the potential of chasing an isolated slow moving, behemoth tornadic supercell is worth the gamble. Plus, I'm getting more lazy, gas is expensive, and I have to be back at work tomorrow. :-) More updates through the day.
Also, I'm really starting to think that tomorrow (Wednesday) has some serious potential for the TX PH in my own backyard...stay tuned for that.
A couple of pics from yesterday....nothing too exciting though.
UPDATE 1630z: Latest RUC (15z) guidance redevelops the surface low back to west of Springfield, CO by 18z with strong dryline convergence setting up across the I-40 corridor in the TX PH. By 21z, it moves the surface low to Springfield with continued convergence just east of Dumas/Amarillo and breaks out precip down to Beaver, OK into the NE TX PH. By 00z, the surface low only moves to Elkhart, KS and the RUC lights up the dryline from around Claude, TX northward into KS. Strong SRH values of 300 are progged from the NE tip of TX PH into SW KS along with CAPE 2000-3000. The nice dry punch/bulge knifes into SW KS and I'm concerned about another signficant tornado event unfolding up there. I'm going to aim for the NE TX PH though and work into NW OK with what erupts there. 5000 chasers will be in SW KS today. :-) I can't help but think the SPC will raise the outlook to moderate and use more stern wording in the 1630z outlook. We'll see. I'm also getting pretty excited for tomorrow too based on the 12z NAM.
In reviewing my forecast yesterday, I think I did alright and still would have made it. The dryline initially setup just east of Amarillo where a cell tried to pop up in the same spot three different times. The third time nearly had me bolting out the door. I have no doubt that it would have stayed rooted on the dryline and put on a show. However, convergence quickly waned and the cap won out, unfortunately. A cluster of high based storms associated with a lagging impulse came crashing into the party and screwed everything up. Even then, a couple of cells went stationary and backbuilt with a slow southward push. They popped some good mesos on them and a couple of hooks as they crossed the weak convergence zone (formally the dryline). So, that was interesting. I did get treated to a great lightning show on the way home. There were a couple of incredible displays as the entire sky would light up and erupt with crawlers and CGs all at once making it seem like daylight.
For today, the 1300z SPC outlook shifts the carrot-on-a-stick a little further northward into NW and W Central KS with a teaser outlook down to Childress. Even if I took the day off, NW KS is too far for me. So, I'll be focusing from the OK PH southward along the dryline. Everybody seems to be frightened by the big, scary cap from DDC southward today. I ain't skeered though. ;-)
As I wait for the 12z RUC/NAM to arrive, I'm hope to avoid the mass chaser exodus following the SPC outlooks and gamble on the dryline. The 11z RUC showed the SFC low in extreme SE CO today with strong dryline convergence across the TX PH...interesting. If this verifies (the RUC was bad yesterday prior to 18z), then enough convergence along with a subtle dryline circulation or two will pop up an isolated cell or two down in these parts with all of that juicy, unstable virgin air feeding them. Vertical wind profiles are in good shape to really get these puppies rotating. Again, they should be slow movers with deviant motions and if the dryline covergence is strong enough, they have a good chance of staying rooted on it.
So for me personally, the potential of chasing an isolated slow moving, behemoth tornadic supercell is worth the gamble. Plus, I'm getting more lazy, gas is expensive, and I have to be back at work tomorrow. :-) More updates through the day.
Also, I'm really starting to think that tomorrow (Wednesday) has some serious potential for the TX PH in my own backyard...stay tuned for that.
A couple of pics from yesterday....nothing too exciting though.
Labels: Flirtin' With The Dryline
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/22/2007 09:20:00 AM
14 Comments:
Nothing exciting he says... is that rain?! Pretty exciting to me! LOL! Good luck with that dryline today. Hope that cap pops and she comes alive for you. As you drove back last night, I watched all that frequent lightning to your south. If at any point you get tired of it, feel free to send some my way. ;-)
You know, there's nothing like a good picture of a storm and dirt road that seems to go on to infinity.
Steve: I hear rumors of you making an appearance into tornado alley today. Is this true? We're about to go to press with it. ;-) Maybe you can put a tornado at the end of that dirt road today!
Dew, well, in that perspective, it is exciting. The horrible drought we endured here the past couple of years should make it exciting for me too. I've seen my share of smoke and range fires since 2005. We'll do our best to get Ma Nature to remove her death grip on ya'll down there. What's that I see on the distant horizon? Tropical activity? Hmmmmmm..... :-)
Nothing that exciting..Why dont you come live here in our neck of the wods for a while..Dew, I think you were right..He is spoiled. ;-)
Next thing you know he will be wanting a "pool girl" and mudslide to be delivered to the chase element in the field..Oh the humanity!! LOLOL!!! wish I had the time to make a trip out there. Maybe early next year...
Hey, I'm not asking for much. :-) You can only imagine my chase "entourage" if I ever won the lottery. LOL!!!
I would just like to go on the record as saying that if you strike it big and get to create your dream chase "entourage", remember us little people who never get to see weather and liked you when you needed 2 X 4 therapy. ;-)
Yep, I'm thinking, a Hummer with a Dewdrop airbrushed on it... that, my friend, would earn you a hand-delivered beer. Heck, I'd bring you several beers.
Now, if we could just figure a way to entice the storms with some of that cash... lol
I couldn't help but notice the day 2 outlook... really hope it pans out.
Well of course I'll remember you little people. You'll become part of my entourage...serving me beer. LOL!! [ducks the hurled 2x4]
Yeah, the day 2 looks pretty sweet and about what I envisioned. I'd draw the risk area a tad westward though to near the NM border and extend the moderate to the I-27 corridor...but that's just me. :-) It looks like a pretty significant severe weather event to me. Tomorrow morning's analysis is going to be fun. :-)
For today, I was abit surprised by the 1630z outlook. I thought they'd extend the slight down into the NE TX PH and draw a small moderate in W/SW KS.
Harsh... Steve, I see nothing where you are. I hope that cap breaks for you.
No instead you had time to come here and be pissy in someone else's blog. pffft
You chasing tomorrow Steve? Is the motel open tonight? LOL
David, I agree with you... pffft!
Oh dear, I see my fan club is back. LOL!! They'll get the big delete key.
Well, the motel isn't open tonight unfortunately. I'm dog tired and about to hit the sack. And yes, I'll be chasing tomorrow....are you nuts? LOL!
Dew, that's just chasing for you. I knew I was gambling and sometimes the house wins. :-) At least we still have tomorrow.
No worries..just thought I might shave a couple hours of the drive time tomorrow. Let me know your target area for tomorrow so I can stay in the storm zone there stormkiller. LOL
Sorry, Dave, normally it wouldn't be a problem...but I'm hitting the sack as soon as i hit the send button,. :-)
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