Bustola & Exploring the TX PH
I bet a few of you out there thought I was totally nuts for chasing W/NW OK yesterday ouside of any SPC risk areas. Well, this morning I would agree. :-) However, the potential was there based on available data at noon. Entrance region and RRQ of mid and upper jet (although weak) was progged by models to setup over this area along with decent convergence and some marginal CAPE. The RUC and NAM were forecasting pretty good 0-3km CAPE. The RUC especially was forecasting precip breaking out down to about Quanah, TX. Even the forecasters at the NWS-OUN got lured. From their outlook issued at around noon yesterday:
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS.BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DOWN THROUGH FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS...BUT CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY...THEY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CAN PERSIST AND REMAIN ISOLATED.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...TO THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO HOBART TO SEYMOUR. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER. PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...30 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.
One of the major problems was that the models were neve in good agreement on things which made it a tough forecast on top of everything else going on. The upper low moved abit quicker and the entrance/RRQ structure jet never materialized. In fact, the jet core remained further west as the surface convergence worked further east. My concerns about the atmosphere getting worked over really came into play as well...especially over W/NW KS where only a few weak storms and showers managed to get going. It was alot more limited to in areal coverage than forecast. The clouds/precip over the E TX PH and W OK in the late morning certainly did not help the cause. By about 22z, I could tell nothing was going to happen, so I started making my way back home.
But, that is part of chasing. Ma Nature still calls the shots and proves every once in awhile that she can be quite fickle. No doubt about it, this was a difficult forecast even a few hours ahead of expected initiation. Fortunately, I didn't make a long drive yesterday. In fact, I did a little exploration and a little photography.
From a rest stop north of Pampa:
I drive a few miles and see a group of Pronghorns. My telephoto lens sucks though. The quality is cheap.
And, I confirmed what those annoying permanant echo returns are on the AMA radar images.
They are windfarms!
There is another one just NE of Vega that shows up on radar too. This is similar to the permanenet echo you see on the DDC radar to the WSW. It seems windfarms are popping up all over W TX and the PH. I regularly see big semis carrying the propeller blades. I'm certain that alot of these things will spring up over the next decade. I wonder how much it will intefere with weather radar operations? It is certainly going to be a blight on the big open skies up here in this "treeless" landscape.
Regardless, I want to be the first one video taping a tornado ripping through one of these windfarms. Shakespeare himself would be quite amused by the irony displayed in that imagery. :-)
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS.BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DOWN THROUGH FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS...BUT CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY...THEY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CAN PERSIST AND REMAIN ISOLATED.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...TO THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO HOBART TO SEYMOUR. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER. PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...30 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.
One of the major problems was that the models were neve in good agreement on things which made it a tough forecast on top of everything else going on. The upper low moved abit quicker and the entrance/RRQ structure jet never materialized. In fact, the jet core remained further west as the surface convergence worked further east. My concerns about the atmosphere getting worked over really came into play as well...especially over W/NW KS where only a few weak storms and showers managed to get going. It was alot more limited to in areal coverage than forecast. The clouds/precip over the E TX PH and W OK in the late morning certainly did not help the cause. By about 22z, I could tell nothing was going to happen, so I started making my way back home.
But, that is part of chasing. Ma Nature still calls the shots and proves every once in awhile that she can be quite fickle. No doubt about it, this was a difficult forecast even a few hours ahead of expected initiation. Fortunately, I didn't make a long drive yesterday. In fact, I did a little exploration and a little photography.
From a rest stop north of Pampa:
I drive a few miles and see a group of Pronghorns. My telephoto lens sucks though. The quality is cheap.
And, I confirmed what those annoying permanant echo returns are on the AMA radar images.
They are windfarms!
There is another one just NE of Vega that shows up on radar too. This is similar to the permanenet echo you see on the DDC radar to the WSW. It seems windfarms are popping up all over W TX and the PH. I regularly see big semis carrying the propeller blades. I'm certain that alot of these things will spring up over the next decade. I wonder how much it will intefere with weather radar operations? It is certainly going to be a blight on the big open skies up here in this "treeless" landscape.
Regardless, I want to be the first one video taping a tornado ripping through one of these windfarms. Shakespeare himself would be quite amused by the irony displayed in that imagery. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/25/2007 09:45:00 AM
3 Comments:
tornado + wind farm = duck!
I recognize that view well Steve. I have stopped there to rest and take it in many times. One of my favorite stops.
It's now on my list of favorite stops to be certain. :-)
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