Today 3/24
1815z: Headed north and noth-east towards Beaver, OK. I'm still liking that area down to CDS today and will be intently monitoring data as I have a hunch that Shamrock, TX might be my final target today. It is still a tough forecast though.. out the door.
1615z: Things are still rather complex at this hour. The models aren't helping too much either as both the RUC and NAM are offering two different target areas. The RUC prefers extreme SW NE and NW KS. The NAM targets W OK between Vernon, TX to Dodge City, KS. I personally think it is a tie. LOL! I do have to pick a target area though and go with it. I'm not ready to do that yet because there just isn't anything solid to go on.
I'm eyeing the boundaries here in the TX/OK PH and over W OK where thick clouds and a few showers have suddenly developed. This is going to kill insolation there and causes concern for targeting that area. However, this will possibly reinforce the outflow boundary further south into SW OK and the SE TX PH. I'm watching this.
There is another boundary across the NW TX PH that might be a player too. Clouds are breaking nicely across the W Half of the TX PH and areas to the S and W. So, at least we'll get some solid insolation here and being closer to the colder 700-500 mb temps, the lapse rates are going to be alot better along with resultant CAPE if we hold the moisture in here this afternoon. The RUC keeps wanting to shore up some convergence near the I-27/287 corridor through afternoon. I'm starting to pay close attention to this...especially with the latest surface obs showing this with a good dry punch coming in from E/SE NM into W TX.
One thing is certain...I'm not making a llllooooonnnnng drive to NE today. There is enough going on here closer to home that I think has about the same potential. We'll see. Updates later this afternoon.
1300Z: The SPC 1300Z outlook summed up things nicely...especially with things being extremely complex at this hour. The overnight convective melee has really stirred everything up with boundaries everywhere. One big outflow boundary arcs N/S across central KS down to NW portions of OK to south of Lubbock. There is a pretty decent meso high reinforcing this boundary. This is going to be the major player today for me in where to chase.
The 09z RUC conflicts abit with the 00Z NAM with regards to surface features and overall dynamics for supercells. I'm going to wait for the 12z runs of both models as they get a better handle on current data. But, the NAM was favoring W/NW OK into S KS which corresponds well to what I mentioned above. This area will also be under the influence of RRQ jet dynamics as well as the potential OB/dryline intersection. Moisture and instability won't be a problem either. I'm really concerned about recovery up into NW KS and NE where the SPC is focusing their outlook on. This is a pretty strong meso high and a large swath of "source" air has been worked over. It is going to take ALOT of insolation today to recover. On the otherhand, subsidence over NW OK could be a major problem too, depending on the upper low's track. The favored upper dynamics are over NW half of KS into SW half of NE.
Another problem will be the ejecting upper low today. Right now, it is really picking up steam as it eject NNE across NM. The 12z models should help resolve this feature's track through 00Z today. I'm concerned it may eject abit faster and put dynamics further into NE..BUT leave us with a better setup down here.
Ok, alot of jabber to really say that I'm not sold yet on any particular area. Each target area has it's pros and cons evenly weighted...it's a tie. My gut tells me to play the OB/dryline intersection today. I've seen some pretty good isolate supercells develop on the tail end of the "comma" feature with these ejecting upper lows. You might say a "tailchaser". ;-) The 12z data will sway me one way or the other.
I'm going to get something to eat and change the oil. Will post thoughts later.
1615z: Things are still rather complex at this hour. The models aren't helping too much either as both the RUC and NAM are offering two different target areas. The RUC prefers extreme SW NE and NW KS. The NAM targets W OK between Vernon, TX to Dodge City, KS. I personally think it is a tie. LOL! I do have to pick a target area though and go with it. I'm not ready to do that yet because there just isn't anything solid to go on.
I'm eyeing the boundaries here in the TX/OK PH and over W OK where thick clouds and a few showers have suddenly developed. This is going to kill insolation there and causes concern for targeting that area. However, this will possibly reinforce the outflow boundary further south into SW OK and the SE TX PH. I'm watching this.
There is another boundary across the NW TX PH that might be a player too. Clouds are breaking nicely across the W Half of the TX PH and areas to the S and W. So, at least we'll get some solid insolation here and being closer to the colder 700-500 mb temps, the lapse rates are going to be alot better along with resultant CAPE if we hold the moisture in here this afternoon. The RUC keeps wanting to shore up some convergence near the I-27/287 corridor through afternoon. I'm starting to pay close attention to this...especially with the latest surface obs showing this with a good dry punch coming in from E/SE NM into W TX.
One thing is certain...I'm not making a llllooooonnnnng drive to NE today. There is enough going on here closer to home that I think has about the same potential. We'll see. Updates later this afternoon.
1300Z: The SPC 1300Z outlook summed up things nicely...especially with things being extremely complex at this hour. The overnight convective melee has really stirred everything up with boundaries everywhere. One big outflow boundary arcs N/S across central KS down to NW portions of OK to south of Lubbock. There is a pretty decent meso high reinforcing this boundary. This is going to be the major player today for me in where to chase.
The 09z RUC conflicts abit with the 00Z NAM with regards to surface features and overall dynamics for supercells. I'm going to wait for the 12z runs of both models as they get a better handle on current data. But, the NAM was favoring W/NW OK into S KS which corresponds well to what I mentioned above. This area will also be under the influence of RRQ jet dynamics as well as the potential OB/dryline intersection. Moisture and instability won't be a problem either. I'm really concerned about recovery up into NW KS and NE where the SPC is focusing their outlook on. This is a pretty strong meso high and a large swath of "source" air has been worked over. It is going to take ALOT of insolation today to recover. On the otherhand, subsidence over NW OK could be a major problem too, depending on the upper low's track. The favored upper dynamics are over NW half of KS into SW half of NE.
Another problem will be the ejecting upper low today. Right now, it is really picking up steam as it eject NNE across NM. The 12z models should help resolve this feature's track through 00Z today. I'm concerned it may eject abit faster and put dynamics further into NE..BUT leave us with a better setup down here.
Ok, alot of jabber to really say that I'm not sold yet on any particular area. Each target area has it's pros and cons evenly weighted...it's a tie. My gut tells me to play the OB/dryline intersection today. I've seen some pretty good isolate supercells develop on the tail end of the "comma" feature with these ejecting upper lows. You might say a "tailchaser". ;-) The 12z data will sway me one way or the other.
I'm going to get something to eat and change the oil. Will post thoughts later.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/24/2007 08:07:00 AM
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