2007 Inaugural Chase Countdown
Latest 12z model runs are speeding this system up a tad. This sets up an opportunity for me to chase closer to home in the Panhandle on Friday. I particularly like the mid and upper jets punching into my neck of the woods with pretty strong diffluence in relation to the left exit region of the jets. As a result, a surface low should develop and rapidly deepen on Friday nearby too. The GFS tries to set it up in E CO, but I think it will be closer to Dalhart. An attendant stong dryline will trail from the low across my backyard. All of the dynamics and focusing mechanisms will be in place.
However, as expected in late February, moisture return this far up the Caprock Escarpment will be tough. But, there is a good supply of 60Td all over the GOM basin poised to run north courtesy with the LLJ. I think at least 50Td will make it to the dryline up here. I'll become more convinced with the next couple of model runs and watching the moisture return Thursday evening.
Should we get some marginal moisture and a little resultant CAPE, then some pretty stout storms should erupt in my new home territory. My best guess at this early stage would be anywhere from Canadian to Clarendon. That is a leisurely drive for me down I-40 :-)
Storm motions will be pretty swift for unrooted storms. If the moisture is deep enough, then there is always the possibility of a storm rooted along the dryline as I believe it will not much at all for several hours while the surface low rapidly deepens on Friday. But, again, I normally look for better moisture/CAPE for such persistant rooting updrafts.
Saturday looks like a real mess as far as I'm concerned. The upper low and surface low are close enough in proximity that the Jon Davies Cold Core parameters will come into play. So, the surface low will be it in my opinion...and a long shot at that with pretty fast storm motions. I see a big, honking squall line blasting through OK/E KS/AR/MO. I think Friday will be the better opportunity for more discreet and chaseable storms.
We shall see. There is still a large window of variation along with several model runs before then. The upper system is still well offshore at this point after all. :-)
Stay tuned.......
However, as expected in late February, moisture return this far up the Caprock Escarpment will be tough. But, there is a good supply of 60Td all over the GOM basin poised to run north courtesy with the LLJ. I think at least 50Td will make it to the dryline up here. I'll become more convinced with the next couple of model runs and watching the moisture return Thursday evening.
Should we get some marginal moisture and a little resultant CAPE, then some pretty stout storms should erupt in my new home territory. My best guess at this early stage would be anywhere from Canadian to Clarendon. That is a leisurely drive for me down I-40 :-)
Storm motions will be pretty swift for unrooted storms. If the moisture is deep enough, then there is always the possibility of a storm rooted along the dryline as I believe it will not much at all for several hours while the surface low rapidly deepens on Friday. But, again, I normally look for better moisture/CAPE for such persistant rooting updrafts.
Saturday looks like a real mess as far as I'm concerned. The upper low and surface low are close enough in proximity that the Jon Davies Cold Core parameters will come into play. So, the surface low will be it in my opinion...and a long shot at that with pretty fast storm motions. I see a big, honking squall line blasting through OK/E KS/AR/MO. I think Friday will be the better opportunity for more discreet and chaseable storms.
We shall see. There is still a large window of variation along with several model runs before then. The upper system is still well offshore at this point after all. :-)
Stay tuned.......
posted by Steve Miller TX at 2/21/2007 03:35:00 PM
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