Today - 1930Z Update
Well, things have changed just a tad for severe possibilitis in N TX this evening and into Saturday morning. Dryline has stalled as of 19Z and the latest RUC keeps it in place. This is due to a stronger, digging upper system now developing over Utah creating better pressure falls. A surface low is already forming in the NE TX panhandle. The RUC deepens this low with a pseudo-warm front developing near the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma side tonight. As a result, the veering profiles will rapidly become favorable for supercells and even a few tornadoes as the LLJ cranks up over the I-35 corridor and the instability remains strong even with loss of daytime heating. The southern half of Ok and the RR Valley portion of Texas should really watch this closely tonight.
For now, I'm starting to believe that convection will erupt just east of I-35 and north of DFW later today along the dryline...IF it doesn't crawfish westward and break down due to the falling surface pressure upstream. I'm here at home today and just noticed a single towering Cu to my west near Denton. Satellite is starting to show a little enhancement to the cumulus field as well across north Texas. instabilities are pretty stout in excess of 3000 with the RUC continuing to increase that the next few hours. With such strong 0-6km shear in place, storms should go nuts if they get going. Veering profiles are mostly unidirectional right now, but jsut enough to make things interesting. This veering is expected to increase from 00Z onward though.
The other parameter is forward storm motion. I'm not inclined to chase cells at 45mph. ;-) But, hopefully one will get better rooted along the dryline and slow down a tad or backbuild/propogate upstream to have the same effect. The instability is certainly there to support that possibility today.
However, the big horse fly in the ointment is this entire area being on the southern or anticyclonic side of the mid and upper jets creating at lest some weak subsidence. This works to enforce the cap and work against vertical mostions. So, we may in fact just see bubbling cumulus and nothing else until late tonight as the RRQ jet sets up and we get more divergence aloft.
I'm hanging tight here in McKinney and watching stuff visually and on the computer. I'm prepared to bug out of here on a moment's notice.
For now, I'm starting to believe that convection will erupt just east of I-35 and north of DFW later today along the dryline...IF it doesn't crawfish westward and break down due to the falling surface pressure upstream. I'm here at home today and just noticed a single towering Cu to my west near Denton. Satellite is starting to show a little enhancement to the cumulus field as well across north Texas. instabilities are pretty stout in excess of 3000 with the RUC continuing to increase that the next few hours. With such strong 0-6km shear in place, storms should go nuts if they get going. Veering profiles are mostly unidirectional right now, but jsut enough to make things interesting. This veering is expected to increase from 00Z onward though.
The other parameter is forward storm motion. I'm not inclined to chase cells at 45mph. ;-) But, hopefully one will get better rooted along the dryline and slow down a tad or backbuild/propogate upstream to have the same effect. The instability is certainly there to support that possibility today.
However, the big horse fly in the ointment is this entire area being on the southern or anticyclonic side of the mid and upper jets creating at lest some weak subsidence. This works to enforce the cap and work against vertical mostions. So, we may in fact just see bubbling cumulus and nothing else until late tonight as the RRQ jet sets up and we get more divergence aloft.
I'm hanging tight here in McKinney and watching stuff visually and on the computer. I'm prepared to bug out of here on a moment's notice.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 9/22/2006 02:42:00 PM
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