Significant Severe Events?
The NAM just upped the ante this evening for a multi-day severe weather event in the central and southern plains. The biggest question has been moisture return and resultant instability, and this evening's run is more aggressive with moisture return.
Upstairs, a very potent and strong negative tilt low will crash into Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow. The dynamics are highly conducive for a significant tornado outbreak for Thursday and a distinct severe weather threat for Friday and Saturday as a broad trough quickly carves itself out across the Rockies and plains. With repeated spokes of energy rotating through the base and a front and dryline sloshing around, this has all the ingredients for a major severe weather event 3 days in a row.
For tomorrow, I'm wondering if the mid and upper level winds will be too strong for the marginal instabilities expected in OK and KS with CAPE <= 1000 j/Kg? I've seen that happen too many times before where weaker updrafts are sheared right off at the top. However, the vertical velocities and deep layer lift should compensate for that. I've seen that happen before too. :-) I expect to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, but not a "significant" outbreak....but I say that with caution too. With SREH exceeding well over 300 tomorrow from N TX into KS, the atmosphere will rotate easily. (you degreed mets out there...don't roll your eyes...you know what I mean). I actually think the risk for a N TX tornado threat is almost equal to KS and OK due to the weaker mid level winds and better moisture/instability profiles along with a stationay dryline by late afternoon parked over the area. I will be chasing.
For Friday, instabilities increase and a nice right entrance jet region becomes established over the stationary dryline with adequate veering profiles to get things rotating. I'm sure some outflow boundaries will be around to make it even more fun. It doesn't look as "dangerous" as tomorrow's setup, but still looks like an active severe weather day for the northern half of TX and OK.
Saturday is a little less of a threat and looks more like a squall and widespread precip event as the front dives into TX. That's still a ways out though.
As usual, an update in the morning. Time to wake up and get that chase gear ready!!!! This looks like more fun than we ever had since early May....and perhaps the entire 2006 spring season....especially for my Okie Homies. :-)
Upstairs, a very potent and strong negative tilt low will crash into Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow. The dynamics are highly conducive for a significant tornado outbreak for Thursday and a distinct severe weather threat for Friday and Saturday as a broad trough quickly carves itself out across the Rockies and plains. With repeated spokes of energy rotating through the base and a front and dryline sloshing around, this has all the ingredients for a major severe weather event 3 days in a row.
For tomorrow, I'm wondering if the mid and upper level winds will be too strong for the marginal instabilities expected in OK and KS with CAPE <= 1000 j/Kg? I've seen that happen too many times before where weaker updrafts are sheared right off at the top. However, the vertical velocities and deep layer lift should compensate for that. I've seen that happen before too. :-) I expect to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, but not a "significant" outbreak....but I say that with caution too. With SREH exceeding well over 300 tomorrow from N TX into KS, the atmosphere will rotate easily. (you degreed mets out there...don't roll your eyes...you know what I mean). I actually think the risk for a N TX tornado threat is almost equal to KS and OK due to the weaker mid level winds and better moisture/instability profiles along with a stationay dryline by late afternoon parked over the area. I will be chasing.
For Friday, instabilities increase and a nice right entrance jet region becomes established over the stationary dryline with adequate veering profiles to get things rotating. I'm sure some outflow boundaries will be around to make it even more fun. It doesn't look as "dangerous" as tomorrow's setup, but still looks like an active severe weather day for the northern half of TX and OK.
Saturday is a little less of a threat and looks more like a squall and widespread precip event as the front dives into TX. That's still a ways out though.
As usual, an update in the morning. Time to wake up and get that chase gear ready!!!! This looks like more fun than we ever had since early May....and perhaps the entire 2006 spring season....especially for my Okie Homies. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 9/20/2006 09:56:00 PM
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