Big Chase Day
Finally, it appears things are coming together quite nicely for a significant chase event across parts of the Panhandle and W TX. As I have continually watch severe weather setups this season either avoid the Panhandle by 500 miles or totally crater by the afternoon setup, it is quite invigorating to finally see something within range for me to chase...and a good setup at that.
After ALOT of careful forecasting considerations between E CO and W TX, I'm going to stick with W TX. Right now, my thinking is that the current W/E frontal boundary around Tulia/Plainview will remain in place. It might perhaps sag a little south according to the persistent RUC forecast and 12z NAM. I'm thinking it won't however. Therefore, I'm picking Plainview/Tulia as my target for today.
Just as the monster tornadic supercell developed in Jack County yesterday owing to extreme instabilities, we wil have the same setup today. My only concerns are too many storms erupting at once and marginal mid level and 850mb flow. Stll, a well defined boundary, acceptable storm-relative winds, and CAPE busting 4000, a prime, classic Caprock severe weather event is unfolding. I just hope that the bad luck streak for setups out here doesn't continue today.
A special note. My niece will be joining me today on her maiden stormchasing voyage. I hope mother nature cooperates and puts on a spectacle for us.
That's it....gotta get things ready and hit the road in a couple of hours.
After ALOT of careful forecasting considerations between E CO and W TX, I'm going to stick with W TX. Right now, my thinking is that the current W/E frontal boundary around Tulia/Plainview will remain in place. It might perhaps sag a little south according to the persistent RUC forecast and 12z NAM. I'm thinking it won't however. Therefore, I'm picking Plainview/Tulia as my target for today.
Just as the monster tornadic supercell developed in Jack County yesterday owing to extreme instabilities, we wil have the same setup today. My only concerns are too many storms erupting at once and marginal mid level and 850mb flow. Stll, a well defined boundary, acceptable storm-relative winds, and CAPE busting 4000, a prime, classic Caprock severe weather event is unfolding. I just hope that the bad luck streak for setups out here doesn't continue today.
A special note. My niece will be joining me today on her maiden stormchasing voyage. I hope mother nature cooperates and puts on a spectacle for us.
That's it....gotta get things ready and hit the road in a couple of hours.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/13/2009 09:55:00 AM
2 Comments:
Hey, Steve! I'm out here near Quanah, looking at data and watching satellite. Getting ready to head toward Tulia/Plainview myself. Good luck, and maybe I'll see ya!
When it comes to choosing targets, if there isn't a lot of difference in the forecast ... stay local! Missing things close to home really stings!
Post a Comment
<< Home