Red River Shootout & Historic Blizzard?
My current status as a wandering vagrant camped out under the bridge at Steve Miller OK's house will come to an end today as what appears to be the best setup (in my opinion) of the season unfolds.
A warm front will shift/redevelop somewhere near the Red River Valley late this afternoon. At the same time, a classic dryline will sharpen up and bulge eastward intersecting the warm front. Latest model analysis indicate at least a small bullseye of 2500 CAPE around Gainesville with 60Td. Veering profiles will be impressive along with favorable speed shear. With mid level winds of 40-50 knots from the WSW, any storm that forms will have no problem munching eastward along the warm front.
The only caveat will be a strong capping inversion which seems to have alot of people worried and poo-pooing the event. But, capping inversions are what make for raging isolated tornadic supercells instead of multi cell convective melees with storms everywhere at once. Model forecasts and the SPC outlook discussion mention a weakening cap late this afternoon. With such strong convergence within the boundary layer, I'm quite certain the cap will NOT be a hinderence but rather a welcome ally in creating an excellent chase scenario.
I've been watching and expecting the models to back of such a strong eastward punch of the dryline as indicated on the 00Z runs last night. Sure enough, the 12z models have picked up on this. It isn't too surprising given that the strongest pressure falls will be further west in response to the upper system diving into western Colorado. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see storms initiate further west around Wichita Falls to Abilene. With that in mind, my initial target will be Nocona, Texas.
Then the fun turns to the approaching incredible winter storm. As the NWS OUN put it: "The equivalent to a PDS". Snowfall amounts up to 25 inches, yes, I said 25 inches, will be likely from SE CO, SW/S KS, N TX PH, and NW parts of OK. Right now, it looks like Amarillo will get perhaps 8 inches. This is the first time in a VERY long time I've seen any system like this in the southern plains. I'll blog more about this as I hightail it home later this evening after today's fun.
A BIG shout out to my twin Steve Miller in OK whom he and his wife Andrea have been more than gracious hosts in allowing me to park my cardboard box in their driveway this week. :-) I have had alot of fun this week not to mention being able to relax and partake of serious weather weeniness, fishing, and a few beers. In fact, I discovered an excellent on-tap wheat beer at "Coach's" here in Moore. I'll be back for more of that next time. :-)
Anyway, need to pack up my shanty, get a shower, and head out the door. Watch for my live streaming stuff later this afternoon on my LIVE CHASE PAGE.
A warm front will shift/redevelop somewhere near the Red River Valley late this afternoon. At the same time, a classic dryline will sharpen up and bulge eastward intersecting the warm front. Latest model analysis indicate at least a small bullseye of 2500 CAPE around Gainesville with 60Td. Veering profiles will be impressive along with favorable speed shear. With mid level winds of 40-50 knots from the WSW, any storm that forms will have no problem munching eastward along the warm front.
The only caveat will be a strong capping inversion which seems to have alot of people worried and poo-pooing the event. But, capping inversions are what make for raging isolated tornadic supercells instead of multi cell convective melees with storms everywhere at once. Model forecasts and the SPC outlook discussion mention a weakening cap late this afternoon. With such strong convergence within the boundary layer, I'm quite certain the cap will NOT be a hinderence but rather a welcome ally in creating an excellent chase scenario.
I've been watching and expecting the models to back of such a strong eastward punch of the dryline as indicated on the 00Z runs last night. Sure enough, the 12z models have picked up on this. It isn't too surprising given that the strongest pressure falls will be further west in response to the upper system diving into western Colorado. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see storms initiate further west around Wichita Falls to Abilene. With that in mind, my initial target will be Nocona, Texas.
Then the fun turns to the approaching incredible winter storm. As the NWS OUN put it: "The equivalent to a PDS". Snowfall amounts up to 25 inches, yes, I said 25 inches, will be likely from SE CO, SW/S KS, N TX PH, and NW parts of OK. Right now, it looks like Amarillo will get perhaps 8 inches. This is the first time in a VERY long time I've seen any system like this in the southern plains. I'll blog more about this as I hightail it home later this evening after today's fun.
A BIG shout out to my twin Steve Miller in OK whom he and his wife Andrea have been more than gracious hosts in allowing me to park my cardboard box in their driveway this week. :-) I have had alot of fun this week not to mention being able to relax and partake of serious weather weeniness, fishing, and a few beers. In fact, I discovered an excellent on-tap wheat beer at "Coach's" here in Moore. I'll be back for more of that next time. :-)
Anyway, need to pack up my shanty, get a shower, and head out the door. Watch for my live streaming stuff later this afternoon on my LIVE CHASE PAGE.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/26/2009 09:40:00 AM
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