Saturday's System
Right now, I'm not too optimistic on chasing Saturday based on pretty good model consensus. Why?
1) 80-90 knot 500mb jet streak over my preferred target areas. I'm just not motivated to try and chase down storms moving up to 50mph or more. Plus, if instability isn't that great (see reasons below), this is far too much speed shear.
2) A "just in time" moisture recovery scenario. I can't recall a good chase when the surface moisture arrives within a few hours of expected inititiation. It's often shallow and mixed out. Plus, the models could certainly be too aggressive with the dewpoint recoveries as well. It wouldn't be the first time.
3) A very good chance at low and high level cloud cover over the warm sector.
4) A very very fast moving upper air storm system. The odds of getting everything in phase at peak heating AND west of I-35 are slim.
5) Season is just starting and models are advertising much better setups over the next 10 days. Plus, it's only early April with most of the season still ahead of us.
The only thing I'm keeping an eye on at this point is that this system is still well offshore and poorly sampled for model intialization. So, it is still possible this system could slow down some and make for something closer to home. Still, for the resons above, I'm not that optimistic even if it does slow down. I'll be watching it though.
On the job front, it's been a great week so far with a very positive feeling about it. Absolutely no red flags raising up as in previous jobs. I'm a happy camper....so far :-)
1) 80-90 knot 500mb jet streak over my preferred target areas. I'm just not motivated to try and chase down storms moving up to 50mph or more. Plus, if instability isn't that great (see reasons below), this is far too much speed shear.
2) A "just in time" moisture recovery scenario. I can't recall a good chase when the surface moisture arrives within a few hours of expected inititiation. It's often shallow and mixed out. Plus, the models could certainly be too aggressive with the dewpoint recoveries as well. It wouldn't be the first time.
3) A very good chance at low and high level cloud cover over the warm sector.
4) A very very fast moving upper air storm system. The odds of getting everything in phase at peak heating AND west of I-35 are slim.
5) Season is just starting and models are advertising much better setups over the next 10 days. Plus, it's only early April with most of the season still ahead of us.
The only thing I'm keeping an eye on at this point is that this system is still well offshore and poorly sampled for model intialization. So, it is still possible this system could slow down some and make for something closer to home. Still, for the resons above, I'm not that optimistic even if it does slow down. I'll be watching it though.
On the job front, it's been a great week so far with a very positive feeling about it. Absolutely no red flags raising up as in previous jobs. I'm a happy camper....so far :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/02/2009 06:45:00 AM
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