Dean & Erin
Wow. TS Dean still out in the Atlantic is closing in on hurricane status. TS Erin was just born about an hour ago after a reconnaissance flight found good organization which is also quite apparent on satellite.
The interesting and scary aspect of these two stroms are that Erin will move into South Texas, up the Rio Grande and a curve into West Texas. Alot of the state will see moderate to heavy rains. Parts of South Texas are still recovering from flooding amonth ago. A couple of rivers are still several feet above flood stage. Erin promises to dump quite abit of rainfall over the southern half of the state. I'm sure flooding will be a serious problem.
Erin's big brother, Dean, continues to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean. All models have shifted back to moving Dean as a big, nasty hurricane into the GOM. The GFS keeps targeting the Texas coast as eventual landfall. Of course, this is still well beyond the envelope of reasonably accurate hurricane forecasting, but I really think the upper ridge will remain pretty strong and in place for awhile thus keeping Dean on a westward track towards Texas. That has been a fairly consistent trend and forecast among the medium range models as well as a persistant wether pattern the past couple of weeks. Plus, there's always the very strong deflecting effects of the Dewvoid® centered over southern Georgia too which will surely deflect Dean towards Texas and away from the SE US coastal areas. LOL!!
If this scenario does unfold, Texas will not only have to deal with a potential CAT 3 hurricane or stronger, but widespread heavy rains and extensive flooding...made all the worse from a very wet 2007 and TS Erin saturating everything ahead of Dean's arrival. It would in effect be a one-two punch from Ma Nature. This *could* be quite a catastrophe for the Lone Star State. I emphasize *could* because Dean is still along ways off and things are sure change to affect Dean's path. It is still too far off to get too excited....unless you are Al Gore and the looney left which hyperventilate and undergo panic attacks when the wind shifts direction. ;-)
So, indeed, some weather to talk about!!!!
The interesting and scary aspect of these two stroms are that Erin will move into South Texas, up the Rio Grande and a curve into West Texas. Alot of the state will see moderate to heavy rains. Parts of South Texas are still recovering from flooding amonth ago. A couple of rivers are still several feet above flood stage. Erin promises to dump quite abit of rainfall over the southern half of the state. I'm sure flooding will be a serious problem.
Erin's big brother, Dean, continues to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean. All models have shifted back to moving Dean as a big, nasty hurricane into the GOM. The GFS keeps targeting the Texas coast as eventual landfall. Of course, this is still well beyond the envelope of reasonably accurate hurricane forecasting, but I really think the upper ridge will remain pretty strong and in place for awhile thus keeping Dean on a westward track towards Texas. That has been a fairly consistent trend and forecast among the medium range models as well as a persistant wether pattern the past couple of weeks. Plus, there's always the very strong deflecting effects of the Dewvoid® centered over southern Georgia too which will surely deflect Dean towards Texas and away from the SE US coastal areas. LOL!!
If this scenario does unfold, Texas will not only have to deal with a potential CAT 3 hurricane or stronger, but widespread heavy rains and extensive flooding...made all the worse from a very wet 2007 and TS Erin saturating everything ahead of Dean's arrival. It would in effect be a one-two punch from Ma Nature. This *could* be quite a catastrophe for the Lone Star State. I emphasize *could* because Dean is still along ways off and things are sure change to affect Dean's path. It is still too far off to get too excited....unless you are Al Gore and the looney left which hyperventilate and undergo panic attacks when the wind shifts direction. ;-)
So, indeed, some weather to talk about!!!!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 8/15/2007 12:10:00 PM
7 Comments:
I was just thinking about the flooding aspects of all this before coming over to read your blog. Indeed Texas could face some serious flooding concerns.
Of all things about chasing... tornadoes, large hail, high winds, lightning....the one thing I fear and hate most is flooding. Flooding waters can ruin your day real quick and in a hurry, residents and chasers alike!
BUY GAS FUTURES.....
THis is Patterson BTW
I was just blogging about the flood potential. The one-two punch could be catastrophic. Awful. One thing I hadn't done is considered the Dewvoid effect... lol. I can't believe you're trying to peg this one on me. ;-)
As we have been discussing for a few days now. Major flooding across Texas and already 7 are dead.
I put up a story with some video about it:
http://wx5tvs.com/content/view/55/82/
Are you guys watching Erin still??? This morning's radar is absolutely amazing. Not only has Erin regenerated into a full blown TS with sustained winds of 45-50 and gusts to close to 80 but she has developed a full blown eyewall in central oklahoma!!!! I have never seen anything like it. It looks like what a hurricane over the gulf normally looks like. Some areas of oklahoma have received almost 10 inches of rain and El Reno (just west of OKC) is reporting I-40 is under 10ft of water. Pressure is reading 29.65 near the eye!! Over OKC???? WOW!!!
As for Dean it looks more and more like it will stay south into northern Mexico but extreme south texas may still be the target. hard to say until it is much closer to Cancun.
check this radar loop for what I mean
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KTLX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20070819&endTime=11&duration=2
I have never heard of that happening, but I was watching it on the news.
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