Arctic Blast
Finally, some weather to talk about! :-)
The season's first "Arctic Express" is preparing its assault on the southern plains starting Wednesday and with a blitzkrieg through Texas on Thursday. Looking at the 12z NAM, it forecasts temperatures falling below 30F here in North Texas by 7pm Thursday with very strong north winds easily 20-30mph and gusty. This will be quite a shock with such balmy spring-like temperatures around here for so long right up to the early morning hours Thursday. We will experience an entire shift of seasons in only a few hours with a 30F temperature drop.
Prior to and during the frontal passage, strong to severe thunderstorms should also develop in response to strong upper air dynamics and instability combined with the powerful surface lift with the front. This will be welcome since the extreme drought rages on here. The question though right now is the evolution and track of the sharp upper trough (just nearly a cutoff low) after the front barrels through here.
If the NAM is correct in maintaining a moist SW flow aloft paralleling the front, then strong elevated storms could continue on through the afternoon and early evening as we plummet into the lower 30's and perhaps below the freezing mark aided in part by evaporative cooling of the shallow layer of drier air coming in at the surface. This makes things intersting in terms of an ice event here (But NOT on ground surfaces!! The ground way too warm for that). Trees, powerlines and bridges/overpasses would be at risk. I've seen this very same pattern too many times. :-)
Of course, this is still quite a ways out and still evolving. It will depend on the evolution of the developing/digging trough diving into the Rockies at that time. These types of systems are always tough to predict, and more often than not, end up digging more and becoming more vigorous and slower to move across. Such a scenario would increase the significance of the ice event. But, in a year when systems always seem to end up more open and progressive, the odds are that we won't see much at all. Ok..ok....it's all a long winded "I don't really know what the heck is going to happen". LOL!
One thing is certain though....our spring-like weather is coming to a screeching halt for awhile. Break out the coats, hot beverage of choice, prep the fireplace, winterize the vehicle, and stow away that outdoor grill. ;-)
More on Wednesday as things come into better focus.
The season's first "Arctic Express" is preparing its assault on the southern plains starting Wednesday and with a blitzkrieg through Texas on Thursday. Looking at the 12z NAM, it forecasts temperatures falling below 30F here in North Texas by 7pm Thursday with very strong north winds easily 20-30mph and gusty. This will be quite a shock with such balmy spring-like temperatures around here for so long right up to the early morning hours Thursday. We will experience an entire shift of seasons in only a few hours with a 30F temperature drop.
Prior to and during the frontal passage, strong to severe thunderstorms should also develop in response to strong upper air dynamics and instability combined with the powerful surface lift with the front. This will be welcome since the extreme drought rages on here. The question though right now is the evolution and track of the sharp upper trough (just nearly a cutoff low) after the front barrels through here.
If the NAM is correct in maintaining a moist SW flow aloft paralleling the front, then strong elevated storms could continue on through the afternoon and early evening as we plummet into the lower 30's and perhaps below the freezing mark aided in part by evaporative cooling of the shallow layer of drier air coming in at the surface. This makes things intersting in terms of an ice event here (But NOT on ground surfaces!! The ground way too warm for that). Trees, powerlines and bridges/overpasses would be at risk. I've seen this very same pattern too many times. :-)
Of course, this is still quite a ways out and still evolving. It will depend on the evolution of the developing/digging trough diving into the Rockies at that time. These types of systems are always tough to predict, and more often than not, end up digging more and becoming more vigorous and slower to move across. Such a scenario would increase the significance of the ice event. But, in a year when systems always seem to end up more open and progressive, the odds are that we won't see much at all. Ok..ok....it's all a long winded "I don't really know what the heck is going to happen". LOL!
One thing is certain though....our spring-like weather is coming to a screeching halt for awhile. Break out the coats, hot beverage of choice, prep the fireplace, winterize the vehicle, and stow away that outdoor grill. ;-)
More on Wednesday as things come into better focus.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 11/27/2006 12:22:00 PM
1 Comments:
Yeah, it has been nice to have a reason to look at the models for the past week or so. Looks like we will see all kinds of weather here in Tulsa:
-possible severe (Wed afternoon)
-non-storm related high winds (Wed)
-ice (Wed night)
-snow (Thurs afternoon)
Post a Comment
<< Home