Flipflops & Waffles

Not surprisingly, the models can't decide how to handle the upcoming pattern change. Just as they start showing some consistency and making sense, they start shifting towards another solution. Now they are arguing with each other and flipflopping. It's definitely going to turn colder and the upper air pattern is making a significant shift. However, the extent and range of both are in serious question.

The 12z GFS showed a colder solution than the preceeding run but still digging an upper low down along the west coast with broad, strong zonal flow across the central part of the country. The 00Z ETA just rolling in supports this upper air solution and showing it even stronger. All of this lines up well with the ECMWF which is buffering the cold air a little more.

I'm going to stick with my guns on this one as there is NO snow pack between here and the Canadian border. With strong mid and upper level zonal flow, it will do a good job of shunting the big Canadian surface high and associated polar air to the east instead of southward. It's size and density (1045-1050mb) of course will allow the colder air to ooze down into North Texas by Friday, but it will be quite shallow and significantly modified by the time it gets here. It will though allow for an extended event of periodic precipitation due to an overrunning effect combined with a series of weak disturbance rippling across. With enhanced evaporative cooling and thick cloud cover, it will enhance the cold air abit.

The bottom line? I don't see it dropping below freezing south of the Red River here locally. I think our high temps will generally be in the low to mid 40's mainly because of precip and clouds. I'm not expecting anything freezing around here at all. Across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle and far NW TX however, temps will get below freezing and due to the shallow nature of the airmass, we could be looking at a decent freezing rain event there. Still way too many variables and details of course to attempt zeroing in on locations....which is usual this far out. For those attending the Denver convention this weekend, it's gonna be pretty darned cold. I'm packing my heavy coat. :-)

I am beginning to strongly suspect that Indian Summer may indeed be snuffed out for awhile though. On the horizon, the models are indicating a strong shortwave developing way up near the arctic circle and then diving rapidly south next week. This will open the door for a much more significant arctic invasion if this pans out. Stay tuned for that one.