Old Man Winter Headfake

Well, it appears that Indian Summer isn't ready to be so easily quashed. The latest 12z model runs continue a trend from the 00Z runs towards a pattern that isn't conducive for an arctic invasion. They now break off a big piece of energy further west long the West Coast while weakening the big vortex that was earlier advertised to strengthen considerably.

The result will be a very strong zonal flow with the upper jets bisecting the country. This keeps the more bitter artic air bottled up and restrained while also lessening it's intensity. For the southern plains, some fairly cold air will seep in, but it won't be brutally cold and pretty shallow in nature. It now appears that we here in Texas will be able to keep the arctic parkas in the closet for the foreseeable future....and heck....maybe even some severe weather in the distant future. It at least looks like a more active pattern for precip at the very least. Good news for some drought relief.

I think mother nature is holding out on an arctic blast until March and early April...to really screw up our chase season. She can be one sick individual. Ask any North Texas chaser. :-)