Texas Tailblogger

I am simply stunned by this morning's model forecasts. Without looking at the calendar, it looks more like an upper pattern you'd expect to see in July. A storm/jet track across Canada and the northern plains with very weak winds across most of the county including a strong ridge is not what May should be like at all. This is more astounding to me after such a crazy and wild upper air pattern into the first few days of May.

I keep looking out 10-14 days ahead, and there just doesn't appear to much hope at all for chasers south of the Dakotas. Parts of Texas might have a couple of shots as the weaker subtropical jet still resides pretty far south this time of year. But, most of the action looks to stay in the southern half of the state....well out of range for me since I can't take a chasecation this year because of the new job.

So, with the rest of May looking pretty much hosed, what will the traditional Memorial Day weekend into the first half of June hold? Well, by about May 27, the super-long range GFS keeps trying to move a big trough onshore to the left coast by then....but forecasting a very stubborn ridge and upper air pattern remaining stagnant. Pretty pitiful. yeah, I know, it's the GFS and that far out can't be trusted. But, I've found in the past that it seems to have an uncanny knack for being accurate with ridging. It did well with this current pattern we are in about 10 days ago.

There will still be alot of unsettled weather though as weak impulses meander around in the weak upper flow. But shear will be pitiful resulting in pulse/multicluster stuff. A few boundaries will also meander around to provide a focus. So, it's not impossible to get a few severe storms, but the majestic supercells we are accustomed to seeing in May are going to be a rare beast indeed...except if you can travel to the Dakotas or Minnesota.

So, once again, the "official start to chase season" sputters and dies before it gets going. I'm not sure how many Mays in a row this makes of an extended "drought" for stormchasers. That's why I always consider the official start of March 15th with a May climax. :-) Regardless of the calender or official decrees, I always chase when I can. You just never know what May will hold....and the past few years, it hasn't held much compared to March and April. Maybe I should have taken a few more days off in those months, but I was convinced 2007 would finally be a year of a normal May. LOL!! Ma Nature can be such a cruel jokester.

In the meantime, here is what a poor stormchaser does under a July-ish upper air pattern...my trip down to the Lake Texoma area to visit the folks this weekend. I'll do abit of Photoshop on the later to get the best quality out of them, but thought I'd throw them out for a gander.

Just north of Vernon.

A couple of Longhorns appreciating the aesthetic beauty of a sunset.

Transcendental Longhorn gazes into the sunset.

"Hey, you be messin' with my sunset meditation, man!"

I really need a macro lens, but this ain't too bad. Getting the little critters to sit still long enough is the trick. I glued this one's feet to the feeder. Just kidding!