Vortex 2 vs Chasers
The V2 "scientists" (or Discovery Channel movie stars) are bitching about chaser convergence.
I do wonder what V2 still wants to accomplish. Detail of wind fields around a cyclic tornadic supercell? I contend that it will be next to impossible due to logistics and trying to coordinate all the probes and radar. That takes alot of time to deploy properly in a spatial context relative to the storm so as to get a proper dataset.
Mother nature ain't very patient and will not sit and wait 30-60 minutes for them to setup. Even if a cyclic tornadic supercell is stationary like the SD beast a few days ago, it is very difficult at best. Give storm motions 30mph, you'd have a better chance of winning the lottery. 50mph like the day they are bitching about? I'd say 1 chance in a billion at those speeds. So, in my opinion, they already failed that day before they even pulled out of the hotel parking lot. Plus, any chaser that has chased around central Oklahoma on big days know that not only every chaser will be out there, but every other local citizen, media, spotters, etc. as well. Central OK has been a headache since 2000 and gets worse every year. You'd think a "research scientist" would know that.
Why not use a smaller deployment instead of a massive army? At least a small dataset would be better than none, right? And your odds of success improve. This of course comes back to my question is what it is they hope to accomplish? Will it somehow lead to better warning lead times if they figure out the low level wind patterns in a cyclic tornadic supercell? How in the hell will operational radar EVER be able to sample to lowest 2000 feet of a supercell?
Therefore, I contend that all of that money they are pouring into V2 would be better spent on equipping and installing more phased array radar systems across tornado alley. Heck, spend more time studying the meso and microscale features that are so important to the development of the tornadic supercell to begin with? Go probe and scan warm fronts, outflow boundaries, drylines, and the associated intersections of such boundaries. Study an overnight MCS and the outflow boundaries they produce which often lead to the next day's tornadic supercell.
I think there is a greater need to better understand those mesoscale processes so that we can create better short range forecast models like the RUC and HRRR and WRF to better predict where the next day's danger area will be and if storms can form at all due to various factors.
If V2 still wants to go chase storms at taxpayer expense in the name of research, then do so in June and July when storms move slower and are easier to deploy all of their assets. I betcha their success rates would vastly improve. The recent SD beast that was practically stationary for an hour would have been prime. The incredible Baca County CO tornadoes on May 31 would have been great....except they blew that day off. LOL!!! I won't even get into how they seem to miss alot of good storms that us so-called "hobby chasers" seem to catch.
Why not reach out and try to incorporate us "citizen scientists" to aid in the endeavor? This was pointed out elsewhere on the Stormtrack Forum in a related thread. I think there is alot of potential there to work together to accomplish some goals. After all, it seems that "we" are always around the good storms. heck, throw a probe onto Roger hill's or Andy Gabrielson's vehicles. LOL!!!
I could go on, but I already have long enough. :-) Bottom line, I think the money and resources could be better spent elsewhere and get a much better return on investment.
I do wonder what V2 still wants to accomplish. Detail of wind fields around a cyclic tornadic supercell? I contend that it will be next to impossible due to logistics and trying to coordinate all the probes and radar. That takes alot of time to deploy properly in a spatial context relative to the storm so as to get a proper dataset.
Mother nature ain't very patient and will not sit and wait 30-60 minutes for them to setup. Even if a cyclic tornadic supercell is stationary like the SD beast a few days ago, it is very difficult at best. Give storm motions 30mph, you'd have a better chance of winning the lottery. 50mph like the day they are bitching about? I'd say 1 chance in a billion at those speeds. So, in my opinion, they already failed that day before they even pulled out of the hotel parking lot. Plus, any chaser that has chased around central Oklahoma on big days know that not only every chaser will be out there, but every other local citizen, media, spotters, etc. as well. Central OK has been a headache since 2000 and gets worse every year. You'd think a "research scientist" would know that.
Why not use a smaller deployment instead of a massive army? At least a small dataset would be better than none, right? And your odds of success improve. This of course comes back to my question is what it is they hope to accomplish? Will it somehow lead to better warning lead times if they figure out the low level wind patterns in a cyclic tornadic supercell? How in the hell will operational radar EVER be able to sample to lowest 2000 feet of a supercell?
Therefore, I contend that all of that money they are pouring into V2 would be better spent on equipping and installing more phased array radar systems across tornado alley. Heck, spend more time studying the meso and microscale features that are so important to the development of the tornadic supercell to begin with? Go probe and scan warm fronts, outflow boundaries, drylines, and the associated intersections of such boundaries. Study an overnight MCS and the outflow boundaries they produce which often lead to the next day's tornadic supercell.
I think there is a greater need to better understand those mesoscale processes so that we can create better short range forecast models like the RUC and HRRR and WRF to better predict where the next day's danger area will be and if storms can form at all due to various factors.
If V2 still wants to go chase storms at taxpayer expense in the name of research, then do so in June and July when storms move slower and are easier to deploy all of their assets. I betcha their success rates would vastly improve. The recent SD beast that was practically stationary for an hour would have been prime. The incredible Baca County CO tornadoes on May 31 would have been great....except they blew that day off. LOL!!! I won't even get into how they seem to miss alot of good storms that us so-called "hobby chasers" seem to catch.
Why not reach out and try to incorporate us "citizen scientists" to aid in the endeavor? This was pointed out elsewhere on the Stormtrack Forum in a related thread. I think there is alot of potential there to work together to accomplish some goals. After all, it seems that "we" are always around the good storms. heck, throw a probe onto Roger hill's or Andy Gabrielson's vehicles. LOL!!!
I could go on, but I already have long enough. :-) Bottom line, I think the money and resources could be better spent elsewhere and get a much better return on investment.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/19/2010 08:55:00 AM
6 Comments:
I couldn't agree more. Throw instruments and loggers onto a bunch of chasers cars. You'd probably get a lot more data with that then their waste of 13 million.
I will say V2 under the leadership of Tim Marshall the last couple weeks of operations seemed to be much better. They were actually doing what was necessary to intercept storms.
Calling a 'down day' on May 22nd and 31st are just ridiculous, especially when you're spending someone elses money.
Last year they complained about lack of storms and tornadoes. That hasn't been the case this year, so blame the chasers instead.
I'm beginning to think of Wurman in the same context of upper management in a large corporation. You make a good point about them bitching about lack of storms last year and this year it's the chasers. He maybe doing that as a way to keep getting all of that rich research grant money.
After all, when you fail in the upper echelon of the corporate world, you never accept blame and fix the problem with creative solutions. You deflect and distract to focus the blame elsewhere. In this case, it's very convenient to blame us "hobby chasers".
However, as you pointed out, putting a real life-long veteran stormchaser at the helm makes the most sense...somebody that has chased hard core for decades. I mean, why not?
It's also quite ironic that Wurman with his highly popular "Stormchasers" on Discovery Channel very likely contributed to the perceived problem he is bitching about now. I wonder if he knows how many people out there on the day in question were local regular non-chasers?
I agree with your argument that the researchers should focus more on thoroughly understanding the mesoscale processes, instead of focusing on a tiny microscale process that is not always guaranteed to exist with every supercell that forms. I believe the secrets to a tornado are to be found in the mesoscale details anyway. But, then, I'm not a "research scientist", either.
Also, VORTEX 2 is a far, far cry from what the original VORTEX was. And, dare I say it, Josh Wurman did not contribute much, if anything, to the first VORTEX, either! I'm just sayin'!
Another great point Ken! I'd be interested to do an analysis of what they accomplished versus the money poured into it. Call it an ROI (Return On Investment) study. :-)
Excellent points Mr. Miller TX.. I have been wondering for some time now why they have not enlisted the help of various chasers in their deployment efforts.
The meteorology students, who are not stupid, but only possess book smarts, just cannot seem to “make the grade” when they are out in the field. While chasers learn from being there and they possess the ability to forecast. They learn through experience, the one thing these students seem to be lacking.
Another problem in the field, something that has not been an issue for just V2, but chasers as well is the yahoos and groupies that have been following V2 and Reed Timmer. I am not talking about the citizens who stand outside their homes watching, or the ones that hold up traffic because they feel the need to stop and gawk. I’m talking about the convoy of wannbes that follow these guys, the ones you would not see out on a 5% or lower. They only seem to appear when tornadoes are a sure thing, like on May 10, and May 19, 2010. V2, Reed, and chasers, all need to stop advertising their whereabouts when chasing and maybe the “groupies” will stay home.
I completely agree with everything in your post.
The only people who were going too slow, parked in the road, or just in my way in general was V2 (mostly the slow moving radar trucks). It is amazing the most griping came from them. Oh well, its finally over with now.
I did find it interesting at ChaserCon this year Wurman mentioning he had never even watched the "Storm Chasers" episodes because "he does have that channel".
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