Today....2008's Last Hurrah?

At some point every year, Ma Nature turns out the lights on the chase season. Looking at the various forecast models, today might be it for storms worthy of a chase. That doesn't mean severe storms won't pop up the rest of this summer. But, with the typical summertime anemic flow in the mid levels at this latitude, it won't be anything to get excited about except perhaps some lightning opportunities. I'll have more in my season-closing blog post soon. At least I'm ending the season with a bang. :-)

For today, the models indicate 20-30 knot NW flow atop increasing southerly flow in the lower levels. As we've seen in the TX PH the past couple of weeks, this could lead to some pretty good storms if the dewpoints don't crater into the 40's here in the panhandle...which is a big concern of mine for today. The RUC is very aggressive with this scenario. But, 60's aren't too far away up into the Lubbock/Plainview vicinity by 21z. So, with increasing low level flow, dewpoints may recover by 00Z south of I-40. By early afternoon, I'll know for sure what is going to happen with moisture and resultant instability.

The good thing about the weather pattern ofver the past couple of weeks is that the PH and W TX has made up the critical rainfall deficits for 2008. There's even an indication that Lake Meredith got a little water in it too. The entire region has expereinced several inches of accumulated rainfall...some places in the double digits. It's nice to see water standing everywhere after such a long, horrible drought in the past 12 months.