Drought Update & Maybe Rain!
(originally posted January 10, 2006)
As a stormchaser, I never thought I'd reach this level of elation over the slightest glimmer of rain forecasts. Right now, perusing two of the medium range forecast models, the ECMWF and GFS, I can't help the urge to dance a jig. I know now how some of the survivors of the dust bowl days felt when dark clouds appeared on the distant horizon.
The current drought in Texas is approaching "phenominal" proportions. We are certainly encroaching upon the Dust Bowl era records.
Several small communities in Texas have been ravaged and even wiped out by raging wildfires. All firefighting resources are stretched thin and to the breaking point. Thank God for the dedication of an all-volunteer army of firefighters in many of the rural areas of the state who have performed miraculously when called upon numerous times over the past month. Since my recent diatribe about this in an earlier blog, they are getting some help from the feds, but not nearly enough. We are still teetering perilously on edge of having a humongous, raging fire sweep through a major population center or even several of them. I'm still gravely worried about that prospect.
Some relief, however little it might be, appears on the horizon. The aforementioned models are now consistent and in some good agreement on bringing the next upper level trough further south, deeper and stronger than all of the ones that have been avoiding Texas since I can remember for the past few months. There will be time for enough moisture to advect in ahead of the system and combined with strong dynamics should give us a relatively brief round of significant rainfall for Texas and Oklahoma. The best guesstimate is starting Sunday afternoon and through Monday. Of course, with our luck, it would be foolish not to consider the possibility of things not coming together as advertised. I'm fond of always quoting the late, great Harold Taft: "It don't rain much in a drought". So, I'm being very cautiously optimistic...with reservations. :-) Prayers are welcomed.
Hopefully this is the vanguard of a shifting upper air pattern into something more resembling January/February and instead of early June with such strong, early summer type of ridging. If not, and based on the persistent whacky upper air pattern, then we WILL be experiencing a climate similar to the Dust Bowl days. In fact, Europe is having a very serious prolonged drought for about 3 years now. Check out this news story. This doesn't bode well at all because the entire global pattern is screwed up. It's not just us. Seattle is approaching record rainfall and California floods and Japan gets 13 feet....yes....FEET of snow which is unprecedented. Effects of global warming and greenhouse gases along with deteriorating ozone layer? Well, to argue AGAINST those causes and effects is similar to the "Monty Phython and The Holy Grail" skit where the Black Knight, after having his entire arm sliced off by the sword of King Arthur, proclaims: "'Tis only a flesh wound!". (side note: I'm not totally convinced by some of the junk science being touted as to causes of of global warming. But, the weather patterns of the past two years definitely spells out that something is out of whack. I think it would be a good idea to play it safe and get rid of the SUV...LOL!)
We'll see how this drama unfolds. If we end up with another dry spring, being March and April, then we might be packing up our vehicles like desert nomads and embark on a trek in search for water.
Yeah, ok, a little over-dramatic there. LOL! But, the reality will be emergency water rationing plans that people in major metropolitan areas have never even dreamed of being possible. If we reach "Stage 5", you can forget about watering your lawn or washing your vehicle for starters as that will totally be prohibited with stiff fines as penalties and even jail for repeated violators. You can go ahead and cover your swimming pool too. In fact, under the highest trigger level, "Stage 6", emergency water rationing plans allow water districts and municipalities to restrict the number of gallons a household can use per month based on a calculation that includes number of people, etc. Read it for yourself here. For even more information, check here. There is also a list of the most distressed water supply systems here.
As a stormchaser, I never thought I'd reach this level of elation over the slightest glimmer of rain forecasts. Right now, perusing two of the medium range forecast models, the ECMWF and GFS, I can't help the urge to dance a jig. I know now how some of the survivors of the dust bowl days felt when dark clouds appeared on the distant horizon.
The current drought in Texas is approaching "phenominal" proportions. We are certainly encroaching upon the Dust Bowl era records.
Several small communities in Texas have been ravaged and even wiped out by raging wildfires. All firefighting resources are stretched thin and to the breaking point. Thank God for the dedication of an all-volunteer army of firefighters in many of the rural areas of the state who have performed miraculously when called upon numerous times over the past month. Since my recent diatribe about this in an earlier blog, they are getting some help from the feds, but not nearly enough. We are still teetering perilously on edge of having a humongous, raging fire sweep through a major population center or even several of them. I'm still gravely worried about that prospect.Some relief, however little it might be, appears on the horizon. The aforementioned models are now consistent and in some good agreement on bringing the next upper level trough further south, deeper and stronger than all of the ones that have been avoiding Texas since I can remember for the past few months. There will be time for enough moisture to advect in ahead of the system and combined with strong dynamics should give us a relatively brief round of significant rainfall for Texas and Oklahoma. The best guesstimate is starting Sunday afternoon and through Monday. Of course, with our luck, it would be foolish not to consider the possibility of things not coming together as advertised. I'm fond of always quoting the late, great Harold Taft: "It don't rain much in a drought". So, I'm being very cautiously optimistic...with reservations. :-) Prayers are welcomed.
Hopefully this is the vanguard of a shifting upper air pattern into something more resembling January/February and instead of early June with such strong, early summer type of ridging. If not, and based on the persistent whacky upper air pattern, then we WILL be experiencing a climate similar to the Dust Bowl days. In fact, Europe is having a very serious prolonged drought for about 3 years now. Check out this news story. This doesn't bode well at all because the entire global pattern is screwed up. It's not just us. Seattle is approaching record rainfall and California floods and Japan gets 13 feet....yes....FEET of snow which is unprecedented. Effects of global warming and greenhouse gases along with deteriorating ozone layer? Well, to argue AGAINST those causes and effects is similar to the "Monty Phython and The Holy Grail" skit where the Black Knight, after having his entire arm sliced off by the sword of King Arthur, proclaims: "'Tis only a flesh wound!". (side note: I'm not totally convinced by some of the junk science being touted as to causes of of global warming. But, the weather patterns of the past two years definitely spells out that something is out of whack. I think it would be a good idea to play it safe and get rid of the SUV...LOL!)
We'll see how this drama unfolds. If we end up with another dry spring, being March and April, then we might be packing up our vehicles like desert nomads and embark on a trek in search for water.
Yeah, ok, a little over-dramatic there. LOL! But, the reality will be emergency water rationing plans that people in major metropolitan areas have never even dreamed of being possible. If we reach "Stage 5", you can forget about watering your lawn or washing your vehicle for starters as that will totally be prohibited with stiff fines as penalties and even jail for repeated violators. You can go ahead and cover your swimming pool too. In fact, under the highest trigger level, "Stage 6", emergency water rationing plans allow water districts and municipalities to restrict the number of gallons a household can use per month based on a calculation that includes number of people, etc. Read it for yourself here. For even more information, check here. There is also a list of the most distressed water supply systems here.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 1/17/2006 12:41:00 AM
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