Crystal Ball Update

As we slowly recover from the late season arctic invasion, things are looking alot more optimistic for some serious chasing starting the end of this week. The models are at pretty good odds right now with significant differences with the regards to the evolving upper air pattern. I'm siding with the ECMWF as usual this go around based on previous systems it handled. The upper air patern has been really energetic and agitated the past several months and I see nothing to suggest it is going to settle down soon. With a blocky pattern trying to establish itself with a ridge over the E CONUS, I believe the ECMWF is by far the superior model of choice.

With that in mind, Thursday begins the day of an extended active period with each day afterwards increasing with better chances for severe storms as well as increasingly favorable conditions. Right now, I believe Saturday to be the big day in the TX PH and W TX..perhaps SW KS.

The nice thing is that we might just be through with these big, cold dry airmasses racing into the Caribbean. However, the very very extended GFS wants to do this around the first week of May. That wouldn't at all be unusual given the past several Mays. But, too far out to worry yet and I haven't seen any persistance in this scenario.

More later.......