1/29/2010 Winter Storm Update - 9 AM (15Z)

The winter storm for OK and TX is almost over with, but not quite yet. It is snowing lightly here at my house where I've received around 6" of snow. Currently 15F. A nice band of light to moderate snow has developed fairly rapidly from the OK PH down to near Clovis, NM. It appears that this is due to a weak deformation zone which was advertised by the models.

Such dynamics need to be watched carefully as they sometimes catch forecasters off guard with a narrow band of heavy snow. At this point, I expect 1-2" across the PH today and perhaps even 3" in some spots where the narrow band of heavy stuff develops. . It will be interesting to watch this evolve over the next 2 hours.

Across the Panhandle, the total accumulations so far are up to 13" in some spots, in particular just west and north of Amarillo. Totals are listed below. Most importantly, and something not being well advertised so far, is a serious, devastating ice storm that impacted a ~50-75 mile wide swath from east of Plainview, TX to Childress into W and SW and S Oklahoma according to what I am reading this morning. Many towns are suffering massive power failures with some spots like Altus having up to 1.5 inches of glazed ice coating everything!!!!! This of course is bringing down everything including trees, radio towers, and even store awnings!

Here is a sampling of the ice storm reports from Oklahoma:

ALTUS, OK
            WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE ACROSS JACKSON
            COUNTY AND EXTENDING WEST INTO HARMON COUNTY. DEPUTIES
            ESTIMATED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ICE GLAZE ON ALL ELEVATED
            SURFACES. AT LEAST 200 POWER POLES DOWN IN JACKSON COUNTY
            ALONE. MANY SECTIONS OF THE MAIN POWER FEEDER LINE FROM
            HOLLIS TO ALTUS ARE DOWNED. A MAJORITY OF TREES SUSTAINED
            AT LEAST SOME DAMAGE.

HOBART, OK
            AT LEAST 1 INCH OF ICE GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...THE
            GLAZE SEEMED TO BE THICKER TOWARDS HOBART. TREES AND
            POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF. 4 DOUBLE H-SHAPED POWER POLES
            SNAPPED OFF ALONG HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN SNYDER AND HOBART.
            NO POWER IN THE COUNTY FROM HOBART SOUTH.

MANGUM, OK
            ABOUT AN INCH OF GLAZE ON EVERYTHING. MILES OF POWER
            LINES DOWN. ALMOST EVERY TREE HAS SUSTAINED SOME KIND OF
            DAMAGE AND SOME HAVE BEEN SNAPPED OR DOWNED. AWNINGS HAVE
            BEEN SNAPPED OFF STORE FRONTS.


LAWTON, OK
            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. GLAZE AROUND 1
            INCH THICK IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. POWER OUTAGES
            CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN COMANCHE
            COUNTY. DOUBLE THICK POWER LINES SNAPPED AND CAUSED
            ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. A SECTION OF INTERSTATE 44 CLOSED DUE
            TO POWER LINE DAMAGE. A 2 MILE STRETCH OF HIGHWAY 7 ALSO
            CLOSED AS THE ROAD WAS COVERED WITH NUMEROUS POWER POLES
            AND LINES. LAWTON WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER WAS BROUGHT
            DOWN BY ICE ACCUMULATION.

The last I heard about the Texas impacts were Childress was pretty much without power. Shelters were being setup and some National Guard units were assisting. I beg and plead with officials in both states to activate ALL available resources to assist the communities hit the hardest. There's also the fact that many motorists are stranded too out on roads and highways. They need rescue too.

Overall, this is going to become a HUGE news story over the next few days. To get more information, Google tv stations and newspapers in Oklahoma and Texas. There are some incredible photos on there as well as information.

For an excellent site for report details and even live webcams in Oklahoma, CLICK HERE. Check out Altus' cam. Wow!

Well, as I write this, the National Weather Service websites are not responding. So, I can't post any snowfall report totals. I'll post those later.

And yes, I got to eat a little crow about my forecast of 10-16" across the PH with some spots to 20". I watched the satellite water vapor loop late last night and this morning. That strong dry slot in the mid levels was a major sucker punch for me. In fact, it raced all the way into Missouri and I believe Indiana. This cut just south of the Panhandle mid day Thursday.

This in effect interrupted and curtailed moisture flow into the area. As soon as it punched in, the entire radar echoes of heavy to very heavy snow started dwindling and weakening. No doubt that this was a major factor in keeping snowfall totals tame compared to what was expected. Had this not been a factor, I have no doubt my forecast would have verified. Oh well...the joys of forecasting winter storms!! :-) Kudos to the weather mets on Channels 4 and 7 who called it accurately...as well as the NWS guys.

So, time to round up another hearty breakfast, grab some coffee, and watch this last gasp of snowfall move across the area. Looking at the models as we get well into February, they aren't looking favorable for any additional winter storms for the southern plains. In fact, it looks like we will get some good precipitation events and stay well above freezing.

Another update later this afternoon!