1/28/2010 Winter Storm Update - 12noon (18Z)

Since 10am, precip has switched between sleet and snow, but finally a total changeover by around 11am. It is now HEAVY snow with LARGE flakes. It is convective in nature as evidenced by a couple rumbles of thunder I've heard in the past 30 minutes. THUNDERSNOW!! :-)

Strangely, radar is now showing a LARGE dry air slot in the precip shield south of Plainview working northward. Could this bust my forecast of 12-16" across the area? I'm starting to think it just might. The radar trends also show a general weakening and dissipation of what was a massive precip shield. Will this dry slot work into Amarillo? Tough to say at this point, but current trends suggest it will.

HOWEVER, water vapor analysis still show the center of the upper low spinning around the far SW corner of New Mexico and SE Arizona. As it continues to approach, the precip should redevelop along with a trowel/deformation zone later this evening. The question is if the moisture will be enough with this big dry slot working in. What a forecasting headache. LOL!

Nonetheless, a pretty strong winter storm....but maybe not the more prolific amounts as previously thought. Stay tuned for further developments! Pic below I just took.